Written by Jason Mattes
The Cobalt Institute expects global demand for cobalt to rise by 6% in 2026, amidst supply restrictions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s largest producer of cobalt. The DRC suspended cobalt exports in February 2025 to put a floor under falling cobalt prices caused by a worldwide surplus, but from mid-October placed export controls on miners so that exports could resume, ease the surplus and raise prices. Cobalt prices more than doubled to over USD44,000/tonne (t) by 17 October since the DRC first acted, which could push battery producers to speed up research for a substitute for the metal. At present, prices are well below their 2018 and 2022 highs of USD95,000/t. Looking further ahead, rising cobalt output in Indonesia should diminish the DRC’s dominance, bringing its share down to 50% by 2040 even as global output falls post-2030. According to Market Research Future, the global cobalt market was worth USD21,20b in 2024 and is forecast to grow to USD40,25b by 2035, driven by rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and advancements in battery technologies. The market is anticipated to see a CAGR of 6% from 2025 to 2035, highlighting the key role of cobalt in lithium-ion batteries and renewable energy storage solutions. In addition, China will still dominate demand even as EV battery demand exceeds that of consumer electronics by the late 2020s, despite projected cobalt demand for EV batteries been revised down but remaining the largest source of demand growth.
Copper prices have been highly volatile in 2025. Prices for the metal were up 11% in 2025Q1, but by early April prices had fallen by around 10% from USD9,800 to USD8,800/t, before rebounding to USD10 962,50/t (LME) in October as US-China trade relations improved and supply is tight due to production disruptions. Globally, copper output was forecast to rise by just 0.2% in 2025 and to improve at a marginally faster 2% in 2026. Output is constrained in major producers such as Chile and Zambia, but the DRC consolidates its position as the world’s second largest producer as the Kamoa-Kakula and Tenke Fungurume mines come on line. Nevertheless, output growth in 2025 and 2026 is below global growth forecasts of demand for copper of 2.4% p.a. from 2025 – 2030, driven by accelerated industrialisation in Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and India as well as from China, which remains the biggest market. Construction, grids, industrials and EVs are the main drivers of demand. Projections are for copper prices to remain above USD10,000/t to encourage new mine development, but the market is forecast to remain in deficit until at least the end of 2027. Falling ore grades, rising costs and fewer resource discoveries are driving the deficit in supply, so that both new investment and demand-side measures are needed.
Prices and demand for aluminium are also expected to be strong as the metal is increasingly seen as a substitute for copper. For 2025, aluminium prices are anticipated to rise by up to 7% and long-term, demand is expected to remain strong. Projected demand growth is supported by strong demand for the metal in fast growing and emerging industries, such as solar power, data centres, EVs, and sustainable packaging. As a result, demand could exceed supply, leading to a shortage of 1,4 million tonnes of 2% of primary demand from 2027, says Citigroup. Nevertheless, in the short-run a deficit is threatened by the prospect of a slowing global economy and the end of photovoltaic (PV) subsidies in China, but this is balanced on the supply side by a 45 million t production cap self-imposed by China – which produces +/-60% of aluminium – to inhibit carbon emissions. Furthermore, new smelting capacity is anticipated to come online in the near term, and alumina shortages should ease as output rises in India and Indonesia. With regard to recycling, aluminium production is highly energy-intensive and emits significant carbon emissions, therefore upping the use of recycled aluminium (from solar PV panels for instance) is a way to cut industry emissions.
With strong copper, cobalt and aluminium demand and prices, recycling will become ever-more important as a source of the materials going forward. In addition, investment in recycling equipment will be required to participate in any growth and the material revolution that is coming. For more information on these commodities please click on the links below and please contact SUD Recycling for all your equipment needs on +27 11 784 8955 or info@sudrecycling.com.
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